Ian Bremmer*
British voters face a blizzard of competing claims about the impact of Brexit on everything from their economy to the security of British borders to Scottish independence to the future of the National Health Service to Britain’s place in the world. The two sides don’t agree on the threats Britain now faces. Those who vote to “remain” will likely be motivated by fear of economic isolation. Those who vote to “leave” are likely driven by fear that EU membership will further undermine Britain’s sovereignty, security, and identity.
This much is clear: a vote to leave the EU would cast Britain into an extended period of uncertainty. Any effort to negotiate a new agreement between the UK and EU would encounter bitter resistance in Europe, where governments fear that any advantage the UK might gain from Brexit will encourage other countries to threaten referenda of their own. There is significant support for exit votes in France, Italy, Austria and other EU member states.
A new trade agreement
Hard bargaining over new trade agreements between Britain and EU members would take years. The political and legal uncertainties would raise costs and create turmoil for British companies and for European firms that want to continue to operate in the UK. There is no trade deal to be struck with the United States, where new agreements face traditional opposition from Democrats and deepening hostility from Donald Trump’s America First wing of the Republican Party.
A vote for Brexit would sharply undermine confidence in Britain’s business and investment environment—and its currency. Faced with all this uncertainty, consumers are likely to spend less, and business will be slow to try to expand until they understand the impact of Brexit on their supply chains and demand for imported materials.
Only a bad news?
A vote to leave the EU is not bad news for everyone. Brexit would provide a boon for the legal profession, which would earn large sums over many years as new laws and commercial agreements are negotiated and rewritten. And in the interest of full disclosure, Brexit would be good for my business, the political risk industry, as Eurasia Group clients ask our analysts to help them understand the longer-term implications of separation for Britain, the EU, each of its member states, and dozens of other countries that have significant security, trade, and investment relationships with both sides.
Investors and companies like good news and dislike bad news. But they hate uncertainty. The Brexit campaign will come to an end on June 23. If Britons vote to leave, the uncertainty and confusion will have only just begun.
* tratto dal profilo Linkedin delpresidente Eurasia Group, nonché editorialista del Time
